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ACUS01 KWNS 060538 SWODY1 SPC AC 060536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2012 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS SWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH ALSO MOVING SWD INTO THE N-CNTRL/NERN CONUS. FARTHER EAST...A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM PARTS OF SRN IL/IND TOWARD THE EAST COAST. TO THE SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES...LOW-AMPLITUDE WSWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM NRN MEXICO TO THE S ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SFC...A FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN FL PENINSULA...WHILE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE STRAITS OF FL...THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NWRN CARIBBEAN SEA. ...FL PENINSULA AND KEYS TODAY/TONIGHT... FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND BANDS OF CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AMIDST A PREDOMINANTLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAINTENANCE OF A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...FEATURING PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL PER BLENDED AMSU/SSMI DATA...WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OWING TO WATER-LOADING PROCESSES...CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THUS LIMITING THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE...THE PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PREVENT CONVECTION FROM ATTAINING ANY APPRECIABLE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT...TRACK... AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...FOR WHICH SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. IF THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND ATTENDANT CYCLONIC FLOW STRENGTHENS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY IMPACT THE FL KEYS AND PARTS OF SOUTH FL. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO HIGH FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM. ...SRN TX TODAY/THIS EVENING... WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST ATOP A POST-FRONTAL COLD DOME...AS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE IS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES CROSSING THE AREA MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION...AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW SUCH THAT THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED ATTM. ...FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON... COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CYCLONE...LIMITED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND A WEAK IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...VERY LIMITED BUOYANCY SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT SUFFICIENTLY LOW SUCH THAT A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA IS NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED. ..COHEN/GOSS.. 02/06/2012