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FXUS61 KOKX 060533
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1233 AM EST MON FEB 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN PASSES NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK TROF OVER CNTRL NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO ERN
ZONES EARLY THIS MRNG. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A BUMP OR AT
LEAST A STABILIZATION ON TEMPS. TEMPS ARE RUNNING WELL BLW
GUIDANCE IN SOME SPOTS WITH CALM WINDS AND CLR SKIES. LOWS HAVE
BEEN DOWNGRADED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD WINTER DAY WITH GUSTY W/SW WINDS AND
HIGHS AROUND 50. THERE WILL ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUN IN A DEEP-LAYERED
WESTERLY FLOW. AN NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROF....ORIENTED WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...DROPS SE DURING THE PERIOD...SENDING
A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN A TIGHT WESTERLY GRADIENT...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
MON AFT.

WINDS RELAX MON NIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK...WITH THE COLD FRONT LAGGING BACK ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND AND THE UPSTATE OF NY. NO CLOUDS/PCPN EXPECTED WITH
EITHER OF THESE FEATURES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S WELL
INLAND...TO THE LOWER TO MID AT THE COAST/NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SO
HAVE LEFT OUT POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS TUESDAY
NIGHT DRY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSING NEARBY OR THROUGH THE
REGION. THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN SLOWER WITH
THIS...BUT WILL STILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT. PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE.
MODELS SHOWING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTING
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BASED ON WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON...GUESSING THAT THE PROLONGED TROUGHING
OVER US DURING THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POLAR VORTEX STUCK
IN EASTERN CANADA AS SHOWN BY THE 12Z/05 GFS IS NOT GOING TO PAN
OUT. THEREFORE PREFER A MORE ZONAL SOLUTION ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPING US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FOR THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES
SOUTH...WINDS SHIFT TO A WESTERLY FLOW...AND INTERACTING WITH A LOW
TO THE NORTH...EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED GUSTS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A FEW TO SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUES THROUGH FRI...

TUES...VFR.

WED-WED NIGHT...POSSIBLE SUB VFR WITH ANY PRECIP.

THURS-FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A GRADUALLY TIGHTENING WESTERLY GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA
WINDS/SEAS ON MON ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...EASTERN LI SOUND/BAYS...
AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MON EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

WIND AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS IN TIME FOR TUESDAY
MORNING...SO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN INCREASES ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
ALL WATERS COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW