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FXUS61 KOKX 050015
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
815 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WHERE IT WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
BRISK W FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG GRADIENT
BETWEEN EARL AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
SLACKENING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
INSTABILITY CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATING EARLY THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE
WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
FALL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET
BLEND WEIGHED TOWARDS COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH THE
MAIN IMPACT BEING THE CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY CLOUDS...MAINLY N/W OF NYC
METRO. 850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 8C...AND MIXING FROM AROUND 800 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SUPPORTS HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY...BASICALLY A BLEND OF MIXING FROM 800 HPA WITH MAV
GUIDANCE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELLS ON
SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MINIMAL CLOUDS AND WITH DECOUPLING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...CALM WINDS...AND HENCE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN 4-8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
THE PINE BARRENS.
A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...NO SUBSTANTIAL
IMPACT...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUD COVER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MIXING FROM 850 HPA...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET
BLEND AWAY FROM THE COAST (A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)...WHERE AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP HIGHS A BIT COOLER.
A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WITH THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALLOWING FOR
WARMING...AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THE SKY RELATIVELY
FREE OF CLOUDS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL (CONSISTENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND). IT WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
TUESDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR/URBAN ZONES...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES
AROUND 18C AND MIXING FROM AROUND 875 HPA...SUPPORTING HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL LIMIT
HIGHS NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST COAST
RIDGING TUES NIGHT GIVES WAY TO A STRONG UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA DURING THE WED
THROUGH FRI PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION WED AND CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT. WED WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH BEST FORCING TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECTING ACTIVITY
WITH THE COLD FRONT TO BE ISOLATED-SCT ON WED.
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED ON THURS AND FRI IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN AND MEAN TROUGHING
CONTROLS THE NE US. ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURS.
RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE AND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH GUSTS LIKELY SUBSIDING
AROUND 03Z.
SUNDAY...WEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN BY
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON....PEAKING 20 TO 23 KT IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MON-THU...VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS CONSISTENTLY RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FORECAST LEVELS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS MAINLY IN SE SWELL
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE SO HAVE INCREASED SEAS AROUND A FOOT INTO
LATE SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK.
GUSTY WEST WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS ON ALL WATERS. UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WINDS DROPPING
BELOW SCA LEVELS IS WHY SCA EXPIRATION TIME ON THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS WAS KEPT AT 10Z. ON THE OCEAN...SEAS SHOULD STAY
AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...THROUGH
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FROM FIRE ISLAND TO MORICHES INLET...AND
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE DAY EAST OF MORICHES INLET. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ANZ-353 AND 350 WHERE EXTENDED ACCORDINGLY.
THERE IS A CHANCE SCA SEAS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ-350...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT THERE AT THIS TIME.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY LINGERING SEAS IN ANZ-350 AS NOTED ABOVE.
MARGINAL SCA SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WED/WED EVE...OTHERWISE OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUB
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ON SUNDAY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN BE JUST BELOW 30 PERCENT
OVER A SIMILAR AREA...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT IN GUSTS TO 25
MPH...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WATCH AT THIS TIME. EVEN IF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET...THERE WILL STILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK
OF FIRE SPREAD WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 20 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY...BUT AREAL QPF SHOULD BE UNDER
0.25 INCHES.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$