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FXUS61 KBOX 042108
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
508 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR VERY WARM WEATHER TO
RETURN TUE AND WED. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS WED/WED
EVENING...BEFORE SEASONABLE WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT HAS ALLOWED BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
HAVE INSERTED A 20 POP ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...A BURST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CLOUDINESS SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. USED A BLEND OF
MOS AND MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT THREAT...SEAS STILL RUNNING 6 TO 9 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF EARL AND WEST WINDS
COUNTERACTING THE LONG PERIOD SWELL. WILL EXTEND THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AS SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH...BUT THE
ADVISORY COULD BE DROPPED BY NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE AS SEAS CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A MILD DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z GFS
AND NAM LIFT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. MAV AND MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOK A TAD TOO WARM. H85
TEMPERATURES FROM +7 TO +8 CELSIUS WITH SUPERADIABATIC MIXING WOULD
GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 75
DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT...A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT EXPECTED AS WINDS
DIMINISH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
*BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ON LABOR DAY
*VERY WARM WEATHER BRIEFLY RETURNS TUE AND WED
*A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WED/WED EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT
*COOLER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THU THROUGH NEXT SAT
DETAILS...
MONDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND BEAUTIFUL
LABOR DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S...AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS. ITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS TOUCH 90.
WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS APPEARS A
BIT TOO FAST IN MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/GGEM
AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES...SO WE WILL SIDE WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE...FEEL IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 90.
THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT. WILL JUST RUN WITH A
PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE ARE NOT QUITE SURE ON THE AREAL
COVERAGE/DURATION OF ANY ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL ALOFT OVER NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH 03Z
COASTAL TERMINALS...PERHAPS 35 KT CAPE COD. ISOLD GROUND FOG
PATCHES ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR VALLEYS AFT MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR MOST AREAS. LOCAL IFR VSBYS WITH
GROUND FOG PATCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN ISOLATED EARLY
MORNING FOG PATCHES IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
CONCERN IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY THAT A COLD FRONT BRINGS A FEW
SHOWERS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WED/WED EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL OF THE WATERS AS
W WINDS GUST TO 25 TO 30 KT THIS EVENING. COULD BE ISOLD GUSTS NEAR
GALE FORCE EARLY.
SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO LEFTOVER SSE SWELL AND W WIND
WAVE ACTION. W WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
TUESDAY...
SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS AND CHOPPY WATERS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH COAST AS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GOOD MIXING OVER THE LAND.
WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND FETCH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY YIELD
SMALL CRAFT 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS. WNA
GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERDONE WITH THE INVERSION OVER THE WATERS SO
LOWERED A BIT...BUT STILL THINK WE MAY SEE SCA SEAS DEVELOP ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS WITH A GOOD FETCH. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN.
THURSDAY...
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS
IN THE COOL ADVECTION PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN MARGINAL SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ007-020-
022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ231>234-237- 251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STRAUSS/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...STRAUSS/FRANK
MARINE...STRAUSS/FRANK