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FXUS61 KALY 060531 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1231 AM EST MON FEB 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN MILDER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND FLURRIES...AND FOLLOWED BY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1230 AM...ONLY CHANGES NEEDED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF STRATUS CREEPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE SOME EFFECT ON TEMPS NOT COOLING AS MUCH AND REMAINING NEARLY STEADY. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSIONS... AS OF 10 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE VA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE/VORT MAX IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT HAS PRODUCED SOME CLOUDS OVER NRN NY INCLUDING THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND S-CNTRL VT. CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUES SOUTH OF THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPS IN THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF CLOSE TO THE FORECASTED TRENDS...HOWEVER...WE CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT S/SW WINDS OF 5 KTS OR LESS IN THE NON- SHELTERED VALLEYS. WE TRIED TO BOTTOM THE TEMPS OUT AROUND 06-08Z...AND THEN HAVE THEM GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. ALSO...THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT PRIOR TO SUNRISE...AS THE FCST AREA GETS IN A WARM SECTOR...AND A MILD AIR MASS FOR EARLY FEB. AS OF 645 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST FROM THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CLEAR-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE DOMINATING...ASIDE FOR SOME CLOUDS OVER THE SRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. THE KTYX RADAR HAS BEEN QUIET. WE REMOVED THE POPS FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND PLACED A FEW SCT FLURRIES IN THAT LOCATION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME EARLY THIS EVENING. WE RETRENDED THE OVERNIGHT HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMPS BASED ON THE PAST FEW HOURS OF OBSERVATIONS. THE SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO THE S/SW OVERNIGHT AND BE LIGHT AT 5 MPH OR LESS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MONDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A DEEP LAYER OF DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WNW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. SO...AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN VT...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRENGTHENING W WINDS AOA 850 MB REACHING 50 KT OR MORE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...MIXING DEPTH APPEARS TO BE UP TO AROUND 925 MB...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTH...AND 45-50 SOUTH AND EAST IN VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY 50-55 WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WITH MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS MAY BE HELD UP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN A BRISK W/WNW FLOW...ESP WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. HAVE GENERALLY WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS WELL AS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS LATE. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD DEVELOP WITH AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS TUE MORNING...WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLY EXTENDING E INTO THE CAPITAL REGION TUE MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH GIVEN MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED BENEATH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR TUE MORNING...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING FROM N TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ALL DAY...AS WITNESSED RECENTLY WITHIN THE PAST WEEK. FOR MAX TEMPS TUE...GENERALLY WENT CLOSER TO...OR JUST A LITTLE ABOVE THE COOLER MET MOS...ASSUMING THAT CLOUDS HANG TOUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. TUE NT...AT THIS TIME...HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AND PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ESP LATE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SW...POSSIBLY SPREADING MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS LATE. AS FOR MIN TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...GIVEN THE PROSPECTS FOR MORE CLOUDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A SFC LOW IS MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH SHOWN BY THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST ALSO SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE WED/WED NIGHT. A SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE W/SW MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WED PM-WED NIGHT. THE TIMING IS VARIABLE IN THE DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE ON WEDNESDAY...AND MODERATE GOING INTO THURSDAY...AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE ZONAL. WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST NEAR THE CNTRL MS/TN VALLEYS IN THE AFTERNOON. H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO -4C TO -8C OVER THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30S TO L40S IN THE VALLEYS/HILLS...AND U20S TO M30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A NRN STREAM...BROAD...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD FROM CNTRL-ERN CANADA. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS OVER THE MTNS/HILLS...AND 20S IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO L40S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH U20S TO EVEN U30S OVER SOME OF THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT APPEARS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE PLACED SOME CHC POPS OVER THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SRN DACKS...AND SLIGHT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DECENT SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -13 TO -20C RANGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BASED ON THE 12Z GFS. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U10S TO M20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THIS SURGE OF COLD AIR IS MORE MODIFIED...AND SHORT-LIVE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE HPC GRAPHICS STILL SHOW A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT OVER NJ AND LONG ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...AND THE LATEST ECMWF DO NOT SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AT ALL. THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE. THE CANADIAN GGEM SHOWS SOME SUPPORT TO HPC. THE GFS SHOWS A VORT MAX IN THE NW FLOW. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST FRI NIGHT...AND A LOW CHC IN ON SATURDAY. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT HERE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...COASTAL SYSTEM GETS GOING NEAR THE CAROLINAS...BUT TRACKS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTHEAST ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS. THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE A FEW MEMBERS CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY ARE WELL OFF THE COAST LIKE THE OPERATIONAL GFS. HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD OVERHEARD BRIEFLY...BUT A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE STILL NEAR NORMAL...WITH PCPN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND. A CEILING ABOVE 3000 FEET SHOULD AFFECT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND SHOULD BE SCATTERED AT KALB...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF BROKEN...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR TEMPO. KPOU SHOULD SEE SKC TO JUST A FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE UNRESTRICTED CEILING AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH BACK BELOW 10 KT THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... MON NGT-FRI...MAINLY VFR...NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME GAGES ARE STILL BEING IMPACTED BY ICE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...KL/JPV/WASULA SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...NAS HYDROLOGY...KL/NAS