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FXUS61 KALY 042328 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 728 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS HAS BEEN USHERED INTO THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES LABOR DAY TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND THERE WILL MORE SUNSHINE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...TEMPERATURES DROPPED A COUPLE/ FEW DEGREES AND THE WINDS BECAME MORE WESTERLY AND PICKED UP. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED. BUFKIT AND THE LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF INDICATE THE BAND WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THE BAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE HELP OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE CAN BE SEEN WELL ON WATER VAPOR MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BAND WILL FINALLY LIFT BACK NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. IT WILL BE A BIT CHILLY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...AROUND 50 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...BELOW NORMAL...WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND NOT QUITE AS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH HEIGHTS RISING. IT WILL BE EVEN CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. LABOR DAY IS LOOKING GOOD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY WIND. LOOKING AT ANOTHER TASTE OF SUMMER FOR TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS REGION AND HAVE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... CONTINUING WITH HPC GUIDANCE TODAY. PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT POISED TO SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO PARTIALLY LAND-LOCKED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH...AND AS SUCH...WE HAVE CHC POPS ONLY FROM ABOUT THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST FOR SOME PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALSO SHOWING TO BE TOO STABLE...SO WE HAVE NO THUNDER THEN OR AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WRAPAROUND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND ON THURSDAY...BY THEN WE'RE LOOKING AT SLGT CHC POPS AT BEST. STILL THINK WE'LL SEE SOME SUN. THE HIGH PRESSURE REALLY TAKES HOLD AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...MAKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THIS IS WHEN WE WILL HAVE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. BUT IT DOESN'T LAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM... ORIGINATING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL TRACK UP INTO ONTARIO PROVINCE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND AGAIN LIMITING MOISTURE...TO MAINLY THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS NORTHWARD AS THIS SYSTEM CLOSES IN. PRE-COLD-FRONTAL LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL DROP BACK ABOUT ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES. THE NIGHTTIME COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO ABOUT THE LOWER 50S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ONLY THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TO THE WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL LOWER 80S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO ITS EXPECTED LATE PASSAGE THERE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S HOLDING THROUGH SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE E ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/MON...DESPITE OCCASIONAL BKN VFR CIGS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REACH KGFL AND KALB AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH...BUT OVERALL THREAT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AT 10-20 KT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND TREND MORE INTO THE SW AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MAINLY WEST AGAIN AFTER 13Z/SUN...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KT AGAIN BY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY PM-TUESDAY...VFR...NO SIG WX. TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR/MVFR...ISOLD-SCT -SHRAS. THU...VFR...SLIGHT CHC -SHRAS. && .FIRE WEATHER... A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS HAS BEEN USHERED INTO THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES LABOR DAY TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND THERE WILL MORE SUNSHINE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 85 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND DROP TO MINIMUMS OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...AND HIGHER VALUES OF 55 TO 65 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RECOVERY TO 90 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MINIMUMS IN THE 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ALBANY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LITTLE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...OUTSIDE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING PORTIONS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS... PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...KL/WASULA FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA